在你最初的开始阶段，请力保每次赢20点，就这么多。然后平仓。再如此重复再三。等你真正地摸到窍门的时候，就可以赢得更多的回报了。因此，设定20点的 目标，坚定不移，一直到你成为外汇这门美妙“生意”的巨匠大师。我必须强调，它不是游戏。尤其投入的是你的“血汗钱”的时候，外汇交易是门生意，
二、
尽可能多花时间分析十五分钟图。
三、
具体到每一段行情的分析、操作，要先看看一小时K线图，对行情一步一步的变化过程形成整体的印象，并大致判断出下一段行情将如何展开。
四、
当K线接近、穿越一些关键点位的时候，如果你想知道十五分钟图上，目前这根K线背后隐藏着什么，就可以看看五分钟图。换句话说，在十五分钟图上还没有动静的走势，在五分钟图上是否正在发生逆转呢？
五、
不要沉迷在五分钟图里，这里面包含太多的“噪音”，会让你举止失措，直至绝境。
六、
MACD在十五分钟K线图上能起作用。即使一小时趋势向上，如果十五分钟图在下跌的,从MACD上就可以得到提示。这并不是说，价格运行的方向已经改变，而是说趋势即将、但尚未形成。与此同时，你不应错过眼前正在发生的故事。而它就反映在十五分钟图中。
七、
在十五分钟图上，如果MACD显示向下，而价格却朝北发展，不久，它就会掉头向南了。也许，转折就发生在一个阻力/支撑位，或者，你可以用另三种工具（形态分析、MACD背离、趋势分析）来判断。MACD显示向上而价格朝南，也是同样如此。
八、
MACD只能相信它的背离信号，而不要理会它的买卖信号。MACD是一种滞后的指标，而不是一种触发信号。它的买卖信号，对外汇来说太慢了。
九、
再次强调，对于短线操作来说，MACD背离，在十五分钟图上，比一小时图要清楚。那些还不明白什么是背离的人，请注意我每天发出的外汇交易背离信号分析 图。简单地说，背离就是MACD的方向与价格走势相反。所以，我总是（在下降走势中）把曲线的峰连成一线，或者（在上升走势中）把曲线的底连成一线，与汇 价相应的连线比较来说明MACD曲线的背驰。
十、
保持用20到30点的止损保护你的资金。手工止损也行，但你仅仅用“纪律”来进行资金管理，一定会死得难看。十分之三的交易会出错。三次错误的损失都控制在20到30点的话，你的赢利会远远超过止损，这就是止损的意义之所在。别怕出错。即使是职业的棒球运动员，也只能打中十分之六。狮子在追杀猎物时的成功率才20％。而职业的高尔夫球员则是95％的可能会失误。职业的扑克玩家有50％的机会失败。因此，与其它领域相比，（如果你听从了我的忠告，）外汇交易的机会要大得多。哪怕是做生意也有卖不出去的仓底货，所以，世界上是没有100％的成功机会的。
十一、
总而言之，在一个关键点位前、或是一个明显的形态下（例如：双头、趋势线被突破）开仓，把止损放在另一侧（别离得太近），就会赢。因为，在这种情况下，价 格走势是会突然反向跳动的，容易被打止损。如果你遵从20到30点止损规则，而实际上止损放到另一侧33点才会安全，就应该放宽止损。因此，止损的规则确 实是20到30点，但也应该根据实际情况执行。
十二、
止损只是为了保险.而不是赢利.当行情不断上涨(或不断下跌),你却可以使用追踪止损的方法来不断提高(或者降低)你的止损来保护已有的赢利.
十三、
外汇交易法宝只要四个就够了：形态分析、MACD背离、关键支撑阻力位、趋势线分析。作为一个坚信技术分析的人来说，应集中全部精力进行技术分析，避免情绪化的影响。任何新闻都会反应在价格走势里，所以，根本不必理睬它。形态分析我指的是双重、三重顶或底。
十四、
至关重要的是：虽然我的文章里说过可以用M1/M3或M2/M4预测来作下一步的操作，然而炒外汇是一种对结果不能明确把握的活动，还做不到确信无疑。要不然，这世界真成了遍地黄金，任何人都可以成富翁了。我们并没有期望这样，对吧？外汇是个难以预料的东西。我要强调的是M1、M2、M3和M4的组合可以很好地预测下一时段“真正的”高点和低点。它可能是M1/M4、M2/M3,也可能是其它五个关键点位组合。M1/M3和M2/M4这种计算方法只是一个参考，不能作为一成不变的教条。价格是第一位的指标。它决定了高点和低点在哪里。除此之外，你要预测外汇走势，还要结合另三样法宝——“形态分析”、“MACD背离”和“趋势线分析”。也就是说，如果汇价从前一个时段直到现在都是一直向下发展，现在它到了M3,而且仍在向下，那么就可以说在下一个时段，M3很有可能成为一个高点。即使我的系统说 M4是高点，也不用理会。所以，利用关键点位分析的时候要结合其它三个工具：形态分析、MACD背离和趋势线分析。我就经历过刚刚说的这种情况：汇价从上 一时段就一直向下发展，新的时段开始的时候，刚好穿过M3,而且同时也出现了双顶的形态。好了，这下有三个方面确信它要向南了，在这种情况下我相 信，MACD也一定表明它是会跌的。于是，这个时段的高点，很大可能就是它了。
十五、
刚刚开始接触外汇交易的人，可以从EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, 和USD/CHF这四个主要货币对中选择一个进行操作，并且成为这一个货币对的行家。如果你问我的看法，我个人倾向于推荐欧元，因为我每天向全世界客户提供对于欧元的分析。当你能够很好地把握它的节奏了以后，再转向其它三个主要货币对。处于学习阶段的情况下，主要精力应该放在分析趋势，管理操作上，这个时候，不适合在几个货币对上换来换去的。
十六
保持所有的交易记录，好的和坏的都要.对它们一一加以分析，看看你对在哪里，错在何处.力求下次遇到同样的情况时做得更好.一个＂职业＂交易者必须具备这个好习惯.光凭运气是不行的.
十七、
（待续）
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
以下是39楼suenpheng的翻译内容，移到这里的目的只不过是为了方便大家阅读。感谢热心的suenpheng为大家做出的贡献。
看到这么多虚心的朋友急这看后面的内容，本人帮着翻译下吧，不精勿怪，呵呵，
策略17:
重要一点：如果价格开盘就在新时段预测幅度的顶端（R2或更高），换言之，处在卖区（高于中央枢轴点的区域），且有其它指标指示价格过高（如特定K线，均 线背离或趋势线突破），那么价格有可能已经是新时段的高了。同理，如果价格开盘于新时段预测幅度的底部（S2或更低），或者说处于买区（中央枢轴点以下区 域），且有其它指标建议价格过低，则价格可能就是新时段的低了。
策略18:
如果没什么可做就不要做，不要冲动或仅仅是想做而做，那会带来很多麻烦。仅当四种工具有非常明确信号时才做。
策略19:
选择交易商要选这一行中点差最低的。
策略20:
有时在周末休息后，周日开盘时出现剧幅波动。通常情况下我使用周五的高低开盘收盘（OHLC）数据，但如果周日出现15分钟图上剧幅波动，我会使用周日的OHLC来更好地确定下一时段的支撑和阻力位。当然这只适用于将周日两小时与周一分开的交易商。
策略21:
经常有人问我为什么他的枢轴点与我的不同，答案是你可能使用不同的交易商，24小时交易时段在不同时间断开，结果当然不同，但没关系，因为你的枢轴点计算 是反映你用交易商过去24小时的市场，其结果也预测下一时段的支撑和阻力位。如果你的交易商下午5点断开，你使用不同时间断开的OHLC数据，则出现不同 步。
策略22:
提醒前股票交易者（我说前，因为确实不知道为什么你尝过外汇后还想回到股票）：不要过度交易外汇，这不是刮头皮的市场，外汇趋势很好，下迭中不要买过早，上升中不要卖过早，看到趋势线突破后再做行动。
策略23:
除非全心投入你不会在外汇交易上成功，这不是玩的地方，如果你不打算认真对待，去做别的吧。
策略24:
把你的情绪放在后裤兜，这是事业，应该以事业来对待，你有任何坏习惯，外汇市场会很快给你纠正。
策略25:
重要一点：如果根据你目前一切所学，本时段的大势是跌，则想“下”，反弹就卖，不要试图去买，否则会折磨至死。同样，如果根据你目前一切所学，本时段的大 势是长，则想“上”，逢低就买，不要试图去卖。前股票交易者想双向都得而牺牲。或许当你真正擅长了可以一试，但目前，只想一个方向，免去悲伤。
策略26:
另外重要一点：欧元大势开始于纽约时间凌晨2点以后，正是伦顿时段，外汇最忙时间。一个时段又一时段，欧元总会在这第一个12小时里平均走76点。不管你 信与不信，欧元一旦决定了这12小时的大势，就一直走到该幅度（76点）的另一端。要抓住趋势，骑上它。当然它不会走直线，即使飞机起落也有途中颠簸，欧 元亦如此，一旦选择了方向，它会盘旋直到幅度的另一端。途中会骗笨钱出局，他们从来不知道发生了什么。结论是：如果欧元想在12小时里下跌，它会向下走完 76点，要往“下”想；如果欧元想在12小时里长，它会向上走完76点，要往“上”看。这12小时里欧元要么长要么跌，不会两者都有，我讲的是主趋势。当 然途中会有反弹或回调，取决于长势还是跌势，但如前述，跌势中卖反弹，长势中买回调，这就够了。
策略27:
想想看，你得到上面策略26，你会爱上它，它将考验你的神经。如果你想买入这12小时的大势，何不当它开始时就骑上它！这需要铁的神经，因为欧元会不时背 着你走，但不足以吃掉你开始设的止损。从风险回报率的角度，你冒险20点获利76点，不错的比率。我想说的是何不下单，设上止损，去清理游泳池，让欧元区 折走完它的幅度！很多人被骗出的原因是他们下单后紧盯着价格，稍有波折就反应过度。放下不要去管它，最坏就是被止损出局是吧，往往是你不会，如果你捉到了 主趋势，机会非常有利于你每手多赚760美元。如果途中不停交易，你可能被打的很惨最后赔钱。让欧元领着你，而不是相反。
策略28:
不时的，我会鼓励你从日间图后退几步，远距离来看它，有时你可能离的太近，只见树木不见森林。从日线图上标出趋势线并找出背离，你会看出很多下一步的走 法，这正是你想知道的是吧。不仅趋势线突破和均线背离有大文章，日线在哪里收也会暗示下一步将会向哪走，研究柱图你会知道我的意思。
我觉得不时停下来从更高层次思考是明智的，从上向下看事物是健康的。有时我们会迷失在日间价格的碎步里而看不到眼前展开的大画面。
策略29:
重复一下，你只需看几样东西，然后耐心等待入点的出现。不要觉得是时间了就扣动扳机，要等明确信号。只需四个指标：柱图，均线背离，枢轴点（突破/测试/ 遇阻）和趋势线突破，这些足以让你在外汇交易业成功，不再需要铃铛和穗子，可能与你以前学到的不同。最难做的是抹掉以往所学，摇摇头让它们走开。
策略30:
虽然我说只要四条线索，实际上还有第五个就是价格。价格是天底下第一指标，它告诉你想去哪，让它指路。好比打牌，在它自己亮出来前必须耐心等待。这叫跟着头羊走。
策略31:
最近有人问我关于买卖多手的问题，你可以在入点就满仓，也可以一次一手，随着价格穿越每个枢轴点加仓，直到幅度的终点。如果你确信已顺势并有好的资金管理 技术，沿路加仓没有错。或者两者并用，开始就全仓，随着价格穿越枢轴点买/卖更多，直到终点。不要出局过早，记住外汇趋势性好（尤其主趋势），价格知道想 朝哪走，让它带你去那。用五个指标来做出你的决定。
策略32:
在枢轴点之间交易要小心，这是无人区也是危险区，好的交易是在枢轴点附近做的。
策略33:
花时间在15分钟图上画出枢轴点，这应该是你重点关注的，就如飞机上雷达，没有参考点很难交易（起飞）。不需要画出全部，也不一定能放的下，但至少画出价 格附近的枢轴点。你也可以在1小时和5分钟图上画出，但不能花太多时间在上面，或许是浪费时间，但并非有害。你还应画趋势线。趋势线在枢轴点突破是转向的 有力证据。再画上均线背离，图上看到的越多，交易会越好。交易时段也要划线分开。
策略34:
5分钟图好比航船上的微调板，虽不起眼，但对纠正航向很有作用。交易亦如此，不时看看5分钟图会洞察15分钟图下面有什么异动，这很重要，尤其是接近趋势 尾端，价格试图结束趋势或朝反方向偷袭你却没有注意。当然如前所说，不要停留在前股票交易者喜欢的5分钟地盘上，那些人本质是刮头皮的，但在外汇市场会被 刮光，正如我的一名新客户巨痛后才发现的。他现在下完单（设好止损），就去机场接机，或清理游泳池，然后回来看看不执迷于每个小波动而赚了多少钱。我不是 说完全不管，但我说的是太近就是太近。一旦捉住了趋势（通过五项指标），让价格自己走，耐心等待让你行动的下一个事件。当然下一步行动也要是通过前面五项 指标得出的。如果没有看到什么特别，什么也不要动，坐在你的手上，做什么也不要按进入键。
策略35:
最近有人问我需要多少信号才扣动扳机。我前面说过，你只需要从柱图，均线背离，枢轴点，趋势线和价格来找方向，但要多少信号才交易？当然一个就足以定音， 但两个或更多一起说同样事情则更有说服力。比如，欧元最近是跌势，从上个交易时段结束到进入新时段仍在跌，在新时段开始，价格在枢轴点附近形成双顶。好了 这里有三个信号告诉你怎么做，当然是做空。我们有跌势，双顶还有上顶枢轴点，很多证据说要下行，你应该明白的。这好有一比，早晨开车去上班你不必等所有灯 变绿才启动，那样你就别上班了，绿灯越多越好，但一个绿灯就足可上路了。
策略36:
一些心理学：对于新手，交易做多了自尊心会上升。你不会永远正确，你会犯错，这对新手和老手都是正常的。不要被失败击倒，对自己说下一次，你必须向前走。 如果使用好的资金管理，如20-30点止损，你会活下来看到下次交易，这就是保存力量。不要怀疑你的指标（记住，柱图，均线背离，枢轴点，趋势线和价 格），你不应该跟飞机上的仪表争论，否则就会撞机。所以要对指标不存怀疑，当它告诉你行动时要行动，它告诉你买就买，要有勇气这么做。一个要点是：不要听 任何其他人的，做自己的顾问，闭上耳朵交易，这是你和你的钱，你没有人可问。要避开负面思维的人，不要跟人讲外汇，除非他跟你一样对外汇死认真。否则他会 把你拉下来。要谦虚，把吹牛权留到以后。如果你变得自负，外汇会把你拉下来。最后是专注于成功，当心你的思维，思维会铸就行动和结果。如果你专注于最后的 结果成功，你将会到达那里。如果你总是害怕，会影响你的心理。当你失败和摔倒时，把自己拉起来，拍掉土，继续前进。不要被错误吓倒，你将会做的更好，尤其 当你保留所有交易记录，下死功夫研究它们。要做专业人士，做有准备之人。
策略37:
最近有客户问我，他发现价格穿越枢轴点上行好大阵，账面上多了很多钱，在R2处停住，然后继续上长，应该怎么办？回答是：R2通常是阻力位，当价格穿越 R2上行而不再跌破R2时，R2变成了支撑位，这是一个买入信号，记住价格是王，它想怎么走就怎么走，你必须跟着它，即使它已经给反方向的添了许多眼泪， 或已经超越它的日均幅度，如果愿意它仍会继续走。记住：外汇趋势性强，不要买过早，也不要卖过早，等待它已做出决定的强烈证据。在此例中，价格在R2停 住，但并没跌破它，没有任何要逆转的迹象，一旦决定继续上行，你所有要做的就是跟上，不要成为R2高位缺氧的牺牲品，相信你的指标，按他们告诉的做。不要 本能地认为价格太高了，如果愿意它可以走更高，在本例中是高的多。
策略38:
练习的越多，我的运气越好。(Wayne Gretzky—加拿大冰球名将)
策略39:
通常你不应在枢轴点之间买卖，这是无人区，等待价格在支撑或阻力位做出决定，并结合其它指标，价格方向，柱图，均线背离，在枢轴点的反应，趋势线突破。
策略40:
不要将均线用于背离以外的东西。最近均线在15分钟图上上行，让不疑的交易者相信价格上行，但价格在主枢轴点处调头向下去寻找幅度的另一端S1。在均线上你看不到这些，因为它是延后指标。总之，均线只能用于背离，不能用于其它目的。
策略41:
你只应在枢轴点附近进出，而不是之间，如前述。当价格在枢轴点上波动，看一看5分钟图，幕后有什么发生，因为在价格与枢轴点交涉之前你应该一直只关注15 分钟图。现在你应该关注价格在袖口干什么。在上面（40）的例子中，价格上穿主枢轴点欺骗了不疑的交易者，然后下跌，在15分钟图上留下长上影线。当然只 看15分钟图还看不到，但5分钟图上已经价格逆转，准备下行。
策略42:
均线与价格没有背离，只说明均线确认价格趋势不变。但也不要被捉弄，见40中例。
策略43:
阻力位（M3,R1,M4,R2）是卖区，卖者会多于买者，价格被下压。同样，支撑位(S2,M1,S1,M2)是买区，买者会多于卖者，将价格推高。这 些预期是根据前一交易时段买/卖关系的解释，相信仔细研究枢轴点后你会同意这种看法，价格在接近和围绕枢轴点处会犹疑，停住，并决定下一步走向。这就是为 什么你不应在枢轴点之间交易，此时价格在进行中。
策略44:
不要因为有人说太危险而被吓出外汇市场，实际上与其它市场比它是风险最小的。外汇市场不像股票和期货一样被操纵，它是一个真正完美的24小时市场，你的止损单很少不能执行，因为外汇市场有高流通性，每日交易额达15亿美元，它是世界上最流通的市场，你得到好的成交价，和快的成交速度。
策略45:
5月23日是一个不寻常的日子，价格超出了平均幅度，从枢轴点开始两小时长135点，跃于R2之上。欧元在双顶处逆转，跌破R2，回到日平均幅度，在本例 中稍高于平均幅度。当然你可能已经注意到，双顶同时又是双轨（如果正巧你看的是柱图而非烛图），两种形态同时产生是很强的信号，表示已经到了头。所以在看 价格形态的同时，注意同时发生的组合形态。
策略46:
5月23日应该是M2/M4，因为头天收盘在高位，但实际幅度却是枢轴/R2。女士先生们，交易是灰色的，枢轴点不是石头做的。但通常它们会很接近。
那天，枢轴点R2组合使欧元超过日均幅度，但仍在枢轴点定义的逻辑范围之内。中央枢轴点成了买点（支撑），当价格有力地上冲后，它成为当日寻幅使命的起点。同样，R2是卖点（阻力），是卖压的可能目标，所以欧元在此结束了它当日的寻幅使命。
重要一点是，欧元所获完整幅度都在枢轴点逻辑和规律的指标以内，这是理解该事件的要点。我的意思是中央枢轴点下面的四个枢轴点都是可能买点，上面的四个枢 轴点（包括R2）都是可能卖点。获得，或如5月23日超过完全幅度，都是常理，不一定严格遵守M1/M3或M2/M4的买卖组合。
我相信你已经看到枢轴点的力量，你只应在它附近而不是中间无人区买卖。这里唯一要警告的是如那天，价格在R2之上形成双顶和双轨的形态组合，这一逆转现象，尤其两种形态同时发生，是不容忽视的。
但这里的要点是价格在上穿R2后形成的双顶/轨，该区应该属于竭尽区，考虑到最后的阻力位被破的事实。然后你寻找有力证据，看价格会继续上行还是如本例逆转向下。
要仔细研究柱图，相信你已注意到价格在某一交易时段的表现与上一时段的相似性。事实上由于外汇趋势性好，每天都看起来相似，除了实际幅度，高低点不同而已（即九个可能枢轴高低点的循环重复）。
价格总会决定要使用哪一套枢轴点，所以要跟上价格，正因如此我称它为第五个指标，或许是五个中最重要指标。到此，另外四个指标你应该有了很多的了解。
请坚持每天研究柱图，它们提供了每天发生的重要线索，如果你明白图中的东西，你必将持续赢利。
策略47:
不要过贪。最近听一个客户说他从一个交易时段只获150点，很多都落在桌上。天那，像他从股市来的人，一天获利这些应该很感激了。要点是，如果你从新手开始每天只求20点，超出的都是奖励，时间长了财富一定到来。
但不要忘记老话“落袋为安”，如果你见到赢利想拿到手，那就拿了高兴吧。你会活着见到另一天，获更多的利。不要总想抓大，这里不会一夜暴富，这里需要保存力量，持续赢利。当你有好的理由平仓时就去做。
策略48:
外汇交易需要遵循一套纪律。大量金融行为学研究表明，比起获利$1的喜悦，交易者损失$1承受两倍的痛苦，因此他们冒更多的风险来避损而不是赢利，结果高买低卖，与传统智慧相背。遵循我的交易策略，你将避免像5月28日的汇市大跌中被剃短发。
策略49:
有人问我为什么等到纽约凌晨3点才行动，失去这以前的可能机会。答案是：这个时间是伦敦交易开始，也是汇市最忙的时间，你会注意到欧元通常此时开始它的主趋势，去寻找它的日均幅度76点，这些点通常会在第一个12小时里发生。自己核查一下，这几乎每天如此，年年如此。
策略50:
“上升三角型”：价格高点似有水平线，而低点越来越高，这通常是牛的形态。取三角型的高，从高点上量得到新的目标价，例子可见03年5月26日。
策略51:
结合枢轴点与其它信号如背离，多重顶，趋势线突破，三角型等，你会很好地知道价格下步走向。通常你应该只在枢轴点附近进出，但有时枢轴之间距离很大，你应该找其它证据预测未来的方向。
正如我一直所说，交易是灰色的，这里没有黒与白，交易更多的是艺术而非科学。当价格遭遇枢轴点时，你会看到该点对价格有很大影响，所以当价格与下一个枢轴点发生作用时要警觉，它可能对下步有显著影响。
策略52:
如果你想抓到伦敦时段的主趋势，却担心入点搞不准，那就等下一个枢轴点。下一个入点就在价格穿越的下个枢轴点附近。或者等它回头重试枢轴点时进入，这样就 没有了入点过早的危险了。有时价格会欺骗，在一个方向走一会，又逆转方向，最后才选定方向。我喜欢的格言是“拖延者羸”，你失去的是趋势最初大约30点， 但更有把握获取余下的46点，因为主趋势要走完它的日均幅度76点。
策略53:
我想提醒你中央枢轴点以上的枢轴点有卖的偏向，中央枢轴点以下的枢轴点有买的偏向，这些偏向保持有效，直到价格将它的偏向由卖变买，或买变卖，即阻力变支撑或支撑变阻力。
2003年6月6日，你会观察到价格在M3的偏向有效，但中央枢轴点下面的枢轴点却由买或支撑变成了卖或阻力，当然，价格决定一切。
另一个要点是，当主趋势展开后（几乎每天发生，在开始的12小时里）你应该沿着偏向去想。那天早期交易的偏向是做空，意味着你应该忘记如何拼写“做多”。 刮头皮的人想双向都获利，但在外汇市场行不通，除非你想被修短发。我这么说因为外汇趋势性好，不要怀疑趋势，除非有确定的逆转信号。换言之，不要卖过早， 也不要买过早。
策略54:
把交易日志继续下去。如果你总是按同样方法交易，你将总是得到同样的结果。
策略55:
没有什么说你必须经常交易或每天交易。在其它市场，大多专业交易员每周只做三到四次非常好的交易，但汇市上却不然，这里的时间段是每天。不过，如果没看到极好的交易就不要交易，关掉它去打球。
放慢速度，遵守限速，这不是赛车。无论如何，你控制市场而非被市场控制。不要强迫自己做不舒服的事，等那些完美的机会再行动。同样在不顺的日子，什么也别做或去别的。掌控你的交易，而不是被控。
策略56:
经常有人问我均线的参数，我用的是初始设定，一样好用，无论如何，均线只用它的背离。
策略57:
我前面说过你应该在枢轴点及附近交易。唯一例外是如果你在柱图上看到趋势线突破，或长上影线，发出明确的逆转信号。如果价格在枢轴之间，而你不知道该怎么做，就什么也不做。汇市或其它市场一样，耐心是最难的。
策略58:
欧元的主趋势从伦敦时段开始显露，在此之前，价格会引诱你朝另一方向想，而事实上它却准备好向相反方向走。在伦敦时段展开前你很容易被骗，应该耐心等待， 从上一时段寻找线索，价格最终会怎么走。你有否看到头肩顶，三角型？有否看到价格在某方向走了很长一段时间？有否看到均线背离（1小时和15分钟图上）？ 有否任何通道，价格试图朝哪边突破？做富尔摩斯，一点侦探工作会在你起跳前帮助很多，如童子军所说“准备好”。把情绪放在后裤兜，以后再用。把交易视作砖 石工程，用同样的原则和方式。这不是在赌博，这是严肃的事业，干系到你辛苦挣的钱，要不惜一切保护它。
策略59:
有人问我为什么不贴出我的即时交易，为什么我从事交易时不可以给我打电话。回答很简单，授人与鱼养其一日，授人与渔，养其一生。而且在安静的交易时间被打扰是非常有压力，也是非常费时的，相信你能理解。我的客户遍及30多个国家，谁来了都要接待将会是噩梦。我们正准备开一个聊天室，眼下还不知何时开张，到时我会及时通知。
我教人捕鱼，而非给人与鱼。记得我第一次学习交易时，做每一步都有我的老师坐在身边，但有一天他搬走了，去了一个偏僻的小岛躲避城市生活。这对他很好，但我却很恐惧，自己如何能生存？女士先生们，当我被迫自己做的时候我真正学会了交易，那时我真是汗珠满额。
这是你和市场的事情，以及掌控你的心理。任何人都可学会用我的方式交易外汇，但做好做坏取决于你内心不停怀疑的小声音，而且恐惧和贪婪时时咬住你。你必须掌握的是你的心理，你必须有纪律和耐心，你必须按我教你的真实信号行动，否则你不如去当地赌场碰运气。
外汇不是赌博，它是一项事业，会有失有得，你所不停努力的是当价格与你相背时要控制它，你是负责人，你可以通过聪明的交易与好的资金管理来取得上风。你不会每次都赢，但使用我的系统，你会十中赢七，秘诀在于把损失控制到最小，让赢利飞奔。
回到没有教练坐在旁边单独行动的话题，我的一位朋友告诉我他如何学会飞行。教练在飞行仓陪他练过几次后，他们降落回机场，教练转过来对他说“该你自己了， 我走了”。说到紧张和压力，朋友自己起飞又降落回来，但脸色仓白，双腿打颤。从此后他就独立飞行，已成为他热心做的事情。这就是没有人手把手而自己独立去 做，我们称之为“拔高信心”。如果你能成功地自己飞行或交易，世界上没有什么事你不能做的同样好。事实上，能够在航空母舰上降落的飞行员可成为最好的交易 员，这是另外的故事了。
我可以告诉你，我的朋友在那次单独飞行中比以前有教练陪着的所有飞行学到的更多。交易也如此，你能做到，一定要相信。努力成为大师，分析，阅读，研究，思 考。对交易有激情。不要把它当成快速致富的途径，因为热爱才去做，就像不管如何你都要做，尽管它可以赚钱。这其中一定有乐趣，只工作不玩耍，你知道会如 何。
不要误解我，有问题我会解答你，我希望你成功，与家人共渡幸福时光。当你来信告诉我它改变了你的生活，你现在用我的方式交易外汇快乐赚钱，没有什么比这更让我愉快了。
策略60:
当你觉得已经捕捉到主趋势，就不要再紧盯在柱图上。一旦趋势展开，找一个枢轴点进入，读柱图是为了捕捉主趋势方向的转变。
跌势中的双顶意义不大，但双底却不同，跌势中的长下影线或双底表示短期逆转。一旦主趋势展开是在空方，假装不知道做多怎么写，紧跟主趋势。以上所说的是伦敦时段的开始，也是主趋势显露之时。
策略61:
你应该训练到，不借助任何视觉帮助，从图上看出价格在向哪走。这必须成为你的第二本能。达到这一点，你的交易就轻松了，压力降下来了，因为你在控制市场而不是相反。这需要日复一日的训练，需要耐心和毅力，你必须坚持直到得到它。胜利者从不放弃，放弃者从不胜利。
策略62:
开始做可能会有恐惧，从容易做起，等你熟悉的坚实信号出现再交易。这意味着你可能等待一二个时段，没关系，不急。我发现有些人急于证明什么，有人觉得必须 每天刮头皮，我无法理解。不管怎样你有操纵权，慢慢来，放松，享受它，迟早你会见到你认识的坚实信号，好了冲吧。有怀疑时，什么也别做，没怀疑那就做，扣 动扳机。
策略63:
不幸的是，你不会每次都得到扣扳机所需的所有信号。交易是科学更是艺术，你不可能100%确信。如果等所有鸭子排好队，要等很长时间。我喜欢的比喻是：你 坐在车库里想去上班，你在等路上所有灯变绿才开车。想一想，你永远上不了班。交易也一样，有时必须做有知识的猜测，然后出发。你不会永远正确，但这不是正 不正确的事，这是做决定并坚持，必要时就转向的问题。接受被止损出局的事实，当作是上帝把你踢向更高一层，离成功更近一步。
策略64:
这一条感谢汤姆：当到达某一时段的枢轴点时（M1,S1,S2,主枢轴点等）只有两个选择，多或空。基本规则是：在S1,S2,M1,M3区的枢轴点下做 多（买），在R1,R2,M2,M4区枢轴点上做空（卖）。很明显，多和空的问题不是如此简单，还需要根据其它指标如均线背离，柱图，趋势和形态等。汤姆 呀，路很长呢。
策略65:
前面说过，你应该在枢轴点附近买或卖。但如果价格在枢轴点之间徘徊，并形成双顶，相信价格将会下行。所以有时你会在碰到枢轴点之前就行动。当然等价格到了再做反应也不为过。
策略66:
这一条感谢哈里：他指出我有时提到“价格投影”，问这是什么意思。简单说它是价格逆转形态，中间柱比两边的柱有更高的高，中间柱就是一个逆转柱，引发转向，价格逆转向下。价格逆转向上的情况同理，中间柱比两边的柱有更低的低，中间柱就是逆转柱。
策略67:
任何事情成功的关键在于重复，包括外汇交易。交易训练的越多，真钱做的越多，就做的越好。你必须坚持，一遍又一遍，贵在坚持，如果始终做不放弃，任何事情都可以做好。不要被市场吓退，赔钱时只当作经验，接受教训，从错误中学习。坚持写笔记，如果不写，它就不存在。
策略68:
我的印象是有些人没有给趋势线足够的关注。趋势线是有力的，价格突破趋势线会转向，不管其它指标如何说。所以要画趋势线，让它当向导。记住：在长势中（如 03年6月25日），只要趋势线不破，低了就买。在跌势中，反弹就卖。长势中绝不试图做空，跌势中绝不试图做多，就这么简单。
策略69:
这一条感谢斯图：我一直说均线只用于背离，但斯图是对的，我偶然（如03年6月25）也用它来确认趋势。如果价格趋势一直向下，走了好长一段时间，那么当价格逆势而行时，非常可能只是回调或暂时的反向运动。我通常会紧跟主趋势，跌势中卖反弹，长势中买回落。
策略70:
有读者问我6月27日星期五发生了什么，15分钟柱图那么多巨幅柱。那是难做的一天，即使对于老练的专业人士。有很多跷跷板，很多止损被执行，交易形态被 季末换仓主导。这是旁观的一天。下次遇到季末要有准备，在日历上标出来，下个，下下个。交易既要擅长它，也要有组织有准备。
策略71:
马拉松运动员在途中只想一件事：越过终点线。他们从不回头看。交易也一样，你应该集中于长期生存。当然有时会跌倒，但只须爬起来，继续向前。胜利者不放弃，放弃者不胜利。
策略72:
小心像7月4日周末这样的节日，交易清淡，很难产生有意义的枢轴点，最好去打球，忘掉它。没有人说你必须每天交易，要有自己的生活。
策略73:
如果你找入点有麻烦，我建议你等出现锤子或拉长顶，然后扣动扳机。你可能等很长时间，但至少可确定找到了好的入点，这种烛图是价格转向的可靠先行者。看看任何柱图，你能找出多少这种蜡烛，你会惊奇有这么多。
策略74:
我刚刚出席过一个年轻交易者的聚会，他们在外汇市场只有两个半月，他们在进步，我以他们为荣。我想把他们的观察传给你们，会有所帮助。他们已学会短期交 易，正学着使用更长时段，从1小时图上寻找线索。他们相信1小时图上的信号比15分钟上的更强有力，他们说你应该等信号在1小时图上得到确认再行动，当然 除非你在15分钟图上看到铁的证据。女士先生们，交易是灰色的，这些想法对他们有效，但并不是说你不可以一试。如果你试了并且有效，请让我知道，我将与其 它同党分享。
策略75:
感谢比尔，他指出03年8月22日图上3:01和5:01-6:01期间的锤子没起作用。我的回答是：这些蜡烛需要与其它指标结合使用来决定价格的转向。 比如上例，下跌趋势线并没有破，因此锤子所含的作用被削灭了。总之，图型所含的转向信号应该伴随有其它信号，包括枢轴点。换言之，当你看到锤子时价格在枢 轴点发生了什么？枢轴点是否支持蜡烛所说？谢谢比尔。
策略76:
最近有人问我哪里找到外汇的交易量。有名的网站都没有，也没必要，因为外汇是流通的市场，交易量是多余的，你只需要技术分析来做外汇交易。
策略77:
有些新闻要关心。我过去一直喊多欧元和瑞朗，果不其然，2003年9月5日美国很坏的就业新闻使二者大长。在外汇市场，新闻不是燥音。
策略78:
有“说话”的牛与熊，还有“真正”的牛与熊。真正的牛熊反映在交易量和未冲单上，当然这些数据在外汇交易中不存在，但期货市场中有，因为期货是主要用来投机的工具，这些数据提供了感性线索。
汇市的转折点往往伴随着极端的未冲单数量，表示有极端的投机。这里的关键是看出未冲单和交易量的极端水平，指示趋势的可能转向。
未冲单数量日间很少有用，但通过未冲单和量来预知趋势的变化，或知道某一货币对的极端投机，对使用任何时间段的交易者都是有价值的信息。通过研究某一货币对的期货，可提高你检测该对货币的偏向并预测其未来走向的机会。
如03年9月2日，商业交易人极端做多欧元和瑞朗的期货，而货币却被极端做空。当你看到这两阵营的极端分歧，你知道价格可能将跟随商业交易人走。
欧元和瑞朗代表了很好的中线做多机会，很好的买并留住的机会。果然，03年9月5日美国出了很坏的就业数据，两者大长，有谁猜到了？
策略79:
我觉得有个错误概念，即你必须只用15分钟图交易。你还可以用1小时和日柱图交易，只是周期延长了。比如，当我喊多欧元和瑞朗时，你可以从日柱图上下单并留住，同样也可以等1小时图上出现合理入点再进入。
策略80:
对于新手，最好避开周一，长周末结束后或季末，这些日子有大量的换仓。
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Currency Trading Strategy Number 17:
Important point here: If price action opens in the upper end of the projected range for the session (all the way up to R2, and beyond) – in other words, in the sell area (that area above the central pivot point) – and there are other suggestions that price is too high (such as a particular bar reading, MACD divergence, or trendline breakout), then price has probably achieved the upper end of its price range for the session. The same holds true where price action opens in the lower end of the projected range for the session (all the way down to S2, and beyond) – in other words, in the buy area (that area below the central pivot point) – and there are other suggestions that price is too low (such as a particular bar reading, MACD divergence, or trendline breakout), then price has probably achieved the lower end of its price range for the session.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 18:
If there is nothing to do, then don't do it. Don't just do something because your "gut" tells you to. That can get you in a lot of trouble in this business. Only react to bona fide signals provided by the four indicators talked about above – "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, and trendline analysis.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 19:
Only use an "industrial strength" market maker with the lowest pip spread in the industry. If you would like more information on this, please send me an e-mail: [email]prbain@tradingsmarts.com[/email]
Currency Trading Strategy Number 20:
Occasionally, you will see a huge spike up in price, as we did 11 May 03. This just happened to be on a Sunday, shortly after re-commencement of trading, after the weekend respite. Ordinarily, I would take the OHLC numbers from Friday, but given the nature of the wild swing up that evening on one of the 15 min bars, I would then use the OHLC numbers from Sunday night's session close to get a better reading on support and resistance levels for the next session. This is, of course, if you are using a market maker that delineates its break between trading sessions in the late evening - anywhere between 20:59:50 and 24:00 (midnight).
Currency Trading Strategy Number 21:
I often get asked by fellow traders why my pivot points aren't the same as theirs. Good question. The answer is, of course, that you may be using a different market maker, where a daily 24-hour session is "cut off" at a different time. Some end at 20:59:50. Others at five pm. Where you take your OHLC from will have a direct bearing on the pivot points that you calculate using my program. The results will obviously not be the same. But, that is okay – because you want to use the pivot point calculations that are reflective of the last 24 hours at the market maker you are trading with. That way, the resulting numbers will be truly indicative of the support and resistance levels you should be working with during the next session. If you are trading with a firm that cuts off at 5 pm, and using OHLC figures from another source that cuts off at a different time, your figures will be "out-of-sync." I hope this all makes sense. If not, please send me an e-mail: [email]prbain@tradingsmarts.com[/email] Also, in your message, you can ask me how to get a copy of my program, if you don't already have one. You can also ask me where you should be trading – i.e., which market maker you should be using. I only recommend "select" providers, after considerable research, and feedback from my clients.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 22:
Former stock traders take note: I say former because I don't honestly know why you would ever want to go back to stocks after having tasted the forex. Don't over-trade the forex. This is not a scalping market! If you have to scalp, do it in slow motion. Currencies trend well. Don't buy too soon in a downtrend, and don't sell too soon in an uptrend. Watch for trendline breakouts to know when to make your move.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 23:
You cannot succeed at trading the forex unless you are TOTALLY committed to trading, and trading it. This is not something to be played with. If you are not going to take it seriously, then try something else.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 24:
Put your emotions in your hip pocket. This is a business, and should be treated as such. If you have any bad habits, the forex will fix them real quick.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 25:
Important point here: If you deem the major trend for the current session, based on everything you have learned to this point, to be down, then think DOWN. Sell rallies. Don't look to buy, or you might get whipsawed to death. Likewise, if you deem the major trend for the current session to be up, based on everything you have learned to this point, then think UP. Buy the dips. Don't look to sell. Former stock traders fall prey to wanting to have it both ways. Maybe, when you get real good at this, you can try. But for now, think one way, and save yourself the grief.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 26:
Another important point here: The major rally for the Euro begins after two am New York time. These are the London hours – the busiest in the forex, bar none. The Euro always – session after session – puts in, on average, 76 pips during the first 12 hours from that time forward. Whether you want to believe it or not, the Euro, once it makes up its mind what the major trend is going to be during those 12 hours, will "drive" to the other end of its range (76 pips) within those 12 hours. So catch the trend, and ride it. Now, it won't be a straight line, of course. Even an airplane taking off or landing encounters some bumps along the way. Same too with the Euro. Once it picks its direction, it will meander all the way to the other end of its range. This will "fake" the dumb money out. They never know what happens to them. To conclude: If the Euro wants to have a down trend during those 12 hours, it will achieve its 76 pips south of where it started. So, think DOWN. If the Euro wants to have an up trend from during those 12 hours, it will achieve its 76 pips north of where it started. So, think UP. The Euro either goes up or down during those 12 hours – not both. Here, I am talking about the major trend, of course. Ah yes, there will be rallies or dips along the way, depending on the direction of the trend (down or up), but like I said earlier, SELL THE RALLIES IN A DOWNTREND, AND BUY THE DIPS IN AN UPTREND. That's all there is to it.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 27:
Something to think about: If you get the above strategy - number 26, then you're going to love this one. It will test your nerve. If you buy into the idea of the major trend unfolding during those 12 hours (check it out here every day, and you'll see living proof), then why not try to get in when it starts to unfold, and "ride it." That will take nerves of steel, because the Euro will go against you from time to time – but not enough so to take out your initial stop. From a risk/reward ratio point of view, you are risking 20 pips to gain 76. Not a bad ratio. What I am trying to say here is why not just put your trade on, set the stop, and go clean the swimming pool while the Euro meanders its way to the end of its range. What spooks a lot of people out is when they stare at price action after they have engaged their trade, and they over-react every time the Euro hiccups. Just leave it alone. So, what's the worst that can happen? You can get stopped out right? Chances are you won't. If you catch the major trend, chances are very much in your favor that you will be richer by at least US$760 per lot. If you trade the action all the way through the trend, you may get beat up real bad, and lose anyway. Let the Euro lead you, not the other way around.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 28:
Every once in a while, I would encourage you to step back from the daily intraday action, and have a look at it from 30,000 feet. Sometimes, we can get too close to it, and not see the trees in the forest. On the daily chart, if you plot trendlines and look for divergences, you will learn a lot about where price is going to go "next." Of course, that's what we all want to know, right? Not only do trendline breakouts and MACD divergences tell a "big" story, but where a daily bar closes will offer up a clue as to where price will likely go in the next session. Study the chart, and you'll see what I mean.
For those of you who don't know what this is all about, the little line pointing off to the right of a price bar is the "close" for the daily session. The little line pointing off to the left is the "open" for that session. In the forex world, the close of one session automatically becomes the open for the next session, as this is a very liquid market, and there are no gaps in trading.
I just thought it wise to pause and reflect at a higher level from time to time. Looking at things top-down is sometimes healthy, and a wise thing to do. We can sometimes get caught up in the minutiae of the daily flurry of price movements, and lose perspective of the bigger picture unfolding above us.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 29:
To reiterate, there are just a "few" things you have to watch out for, and be "patient" for set-ups to occur. Don't just pull the trigger because you "think" it's time to do so. Wait for bona fide "signals." There are only "four" clues you have to look for: "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot point breakthroughs/tests/violations, and trendline breakouts. That's it folks. That's all it takes to succeed in this wonderful business called forex trading. No other bells and whistles or toys are required, contrary to what you may have learned before. The hardest part for you will be to "unlearn" everything you knew about trading before. Just give your head a shake, and it will go away.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 30:
Although I have said that there are only four clues that you have to look at for price direction – "bar reading," MACD divergence, pivot points, and trendlines – there is actually a fifth. It's called "price." Price is the number one indicator in the sky. It will tell you where it wants to go. Let it point the way. It's like playing cards. Wait for it to reveal its "hand." You just have to be patient and wait. It's called "following the leader."
Currency Trading Strategy Number 31:
I was asked recently about multiple lots – in other words, buying or selling more than one lot at a time. You can either "load up the boat" at your entry point, or you can go at it one at a time – adding additional lot(s), as price moves through each successive pivot point, as it "reaches" for the end of its range. If you are confident that you are "with the trend," and are using good money management techniques, then there is nothing wrong with taking more position(s) along the way. Or, you can do both – load up to begin with, and buy/sell more, as price progresses through pivot points in its tear to the finish line. Don't bail too soon. Remember, currencies trend well (especially the major trend), and price knows where it wants to go. Let it take you there. Use the "five" indicators – "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, "price," and trendlines – to make your trading decisions.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 32:
Be careful about taking trades in between pivot points. This is NO MAN'S LAND, and dangerous territory. Better trades are made in and around pivot points.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 33:
Make sure to take the time to draw pivot points on your 15 min chart, which should be your main focus. This is like the radar screen in the cockpit of an airplane. It is difficult to trade (fly) without points of reference to look at. You don't need to draw them all. They probably won't all fit anyway. At least have those that are close to price action plotted on the chart. You can also plot lines on the 1 hr and 5 min, but you shouldn't be spending much time there, so it may be a waste of time. But, can't hurt. You should also draw trendlines. Where price breaks a trend at a juncture with a pivot point, this is very powerful evidence that price is going the other way. Plot your MACD divergences. The more you see on the screen, the better your trades will be. Draw a line down the screen (on the chart of course) delineating start of session, and where you got your OHLC from to calculate the pivot points for the current session. I think you get the "point," pardon the _expression.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 34:
Just to re-hash and beat an old drum, the 5 min chart is like the trim tab on a sailboat, for you sailors out there. It is small and insignificant, seemingly, but very powerful as it assists in "steadying" the course. Same too with trading, looking at the 5 min every once in a while will give you some insight into what is happening "underneath" the current 15 min bar that is forming. This is important, especially at the end of a run, where price might be trying to do an "end run" or "sneak attack" in the opposite direction to what you're thinking, while you're not watching, of course. But, like I say, don't dwell in "5 min land" as ex-stock traders are wont to do. They are scalpers by nature, but will very quickly get scalped by the forex, as one of my new customers has recently found out the hard way. He now puts a trade on (with stop in place for sure), and goes to the airport to pick up company, or goes outside to clean the swimming pool – only to come back, and see how much money he has made by not obsessing over every little movement. I'm not saying don't pay attention, but what I am saying is too close is too close. Once you catch the trend, and enter a trade because you saw something in "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, trendlines, or price action, let price steer the course, and "wait patiently" for the next event that will cause you to take action. Of course, that action will be taken again because you saw something in "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, trendlines, or price action. If you don't see anything significant, then DON'T DO ANYTHING. Sit on your hands. Don't press enter whatever you do! Oh, and before I leave this point, with a market maker I recommend, you don't have to leave the 15 minute chart to "peek" at the 5 min chart to see what's going on at that lower level, because they show the tick-by-tick action right on the 15 min chart, as the next 15 min bar is waiting to form.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 35:
I was recently asked how many signals he should wait for before pulling the trigger. As you recall, I earlier said that you should only take direction from "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, trendlines – and price itself. Now, how many of these should fire before you engage your trade? Well, certainly, one is enough to set the tone – but all the more convincing where you have a couple or more all lining up and saying the same thing. For example, recently the Euro was in a downtrend from the session just ending, entering the new session still in a downtrend, when price did a double top at the nearest pivot point as the new session started. Well, there you have three things telling you what to do – go short, of course. We had the downtrend, the double top, and the double top banging its head up against the pivot point. Lots of evidence that price was southward bound. I think you get the point. An analogy here: If you're sitting in your car at home waiting to go to work in the morning, and you are waiting for all the street lights to turn green on the way to work before you start the car, you will never get to work. So, the more green lights the better, but one is enough to get you going.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 36:
And now for some psychology. For you newbies out there, your self-esteem will grow the more trades you make. You will not always be right. You will make mistakes. That's only normal when you are first starting out, and even after you have been at it for a while. Don't beat up on yourself when you fail. Just say to yourself, "Next!" You must move on. If you are using wise money management techniques, like 20-30 pip stops, you will survive to see another trade. This is all about preserving staying power. Don't second-guess your indicators (remember, "reading bars," MACD divergence, pivot points, trendlines, and price). You wouldn't dispute the dials and gauges in a plane, or you'd crash and burn. So, why doubt what your indicators are telling you. You must believe in them, and take "action" when they tell you to do so, BUT ONLY WHEN THEY TELL YOU TO DO SO! Have the courage to do so. And, now for the big one. NEVER LISTEN TO ANYBODY ELSE. TAKE YOUR OWN COUNSEL. CLOSE YOUR EARS WHEN YOU ARE TRADING. IT'S YOU AND YOUR CURRENCY. YOU HAVE NOBODY ELSE TO TURN TO. SO, DO IT. AND, STAY AWAY FROM NEGATIVE PEOPLE. DON'T TALK TO ANYBODY ABOUT THIS BUSINESS, UNLESS THEY ARE AS DEAD SERIOUS ABOUT IT AS YOU ARE. OTHERWISE, THEY WILL DRAG YOU DOWN. AND, BE HUMBLE. SAVE YOUR BRAGGING RIGHTS FOR LATER. THE FOREX WILL TAKE YOU DOWN, IF YOU TRY TO BECOME LARGER THAN LIFE. And, finally, focus on success. Be careful what you think about. Your thoughts will mould your actions and outcomes. If you are committed to the end result being successful, then you will get there. If you are always fearful, that affect your psyche. When you stumble and fail, just pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and get on with it. Don't be intimidated by a mistake, or a wrong decision. You will get better at this, especially if you keep a journal of all your trades, and study it to death. Be a professional. Be prepared.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 37:
I recently had a customer ask me what to do when price had headed north through all the pivot points for quite a run and lots of money in the bank, stalled at R2, and then continued its journey north. Answer: R2 is normally resistance. When price penetrated R2 headed north, and couldn't fall back through R2, R2 became support. It was a buy signal when price decided to continue its trek north. Remember, price is King. It will go where it wants to go. You must follow its lead, even if it already has put in quite a tear in one direction – even beyond its average daily range. It will keep going in that direction if it wants to. Remember, currencies trend well. Don't buy too soon, don't sell too soon. Wait for convincing evidence that it has made up its mind. In this case, price played with R2, but never punched down through it with any sort of notion that it wanted to reverse course. Once it made up its mind to continue the journey north, all you had to do was follow suit. Don't fall prey to oxygen starvation at high altitudes like R2. Trust your indicators. Do what they tell you. This isn't about falling for your gut feel that price has gone "too far" up. It could go even further – a lot further, in this case – if it wants to.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 38:
"The more I practice, the luckier I get." (Wayne Gretzky)
Currency Trading Strategy Number 39:
You should not execute trades, as a general rule, in between pivot points. That area is NO MAN'S LAND. Wait for price to make up its mind on direction at a support or resistance level, supplemented by other indications of price direction – "reading bars," MACD divergence, reaction to pivot point, trendline breakouts.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 40:
Don't use MACD for anything other than divergence. Recently, MACD on the 15 was trending up, leading unsuspecting traders to believe that price was headed north. However, price did a u-e at the main pivot point, and headed south to find the other end of its range at S1. You wouldn't see this sudden shift in MACD, because it is a lagging indicator. So, to summarize, just use MACD for divergence and nothing else.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 41:
You should only take trades in and around pivot points – not in between, as stated previously. When price action centers around a pivot point, then take a look at the five minute to see what's going on behind the scenes. Because, you should have been focused on only the 15 min up to the point of price interaction with the pivot point. Now, you want to pay attention to what price has up its sleeve. In the above example (40), price faked out unsuspecting trades when it trended up through the main pivot point, only to tank as it did a price rejection bar on the 15 min chart. Of course, you wouldn't have seen this coming if you were only looking at the 15 min. You would have seen the price reversal on the 5 min, and been ready to head south with price.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 42:
The absence of divergence between MACD and price simply suggests that MACD is confirming that the price trend is intact. But, don't be fooled by this synergy. Please review strategy number 40 to see what I mean.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 43:
Resistance levels (M3, R1, M4, and R2) are levels (or sell zones) where sellers can be expected to outnumber buyers, and push price lower. Correspondingly, support levels (S2, M1, S1, and M2) are levels (or buy zones) where buyers can be expected to outnumber sellers, and push price higher. These expectations are based on my program's interpretation of buyer/seller interaction in the last session. I think you will agree, after close inspection of the results of my pivot point calculations, that price hesitates, pauses, and decides on its course of action in and around pivot points. That's why you should never enter trades in between pivot points, while price is in transit, and in a state of transition.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 44:
Don't let anybody scare you off the forex by saying it is too risky. It is actually less risky than trading any other market, that is exchange-based. The forex cannot be "engineered," as stocks and commodities can be. Also, being a true seamless 24-hour market, there is less of a chance of your stops not kicking in. That's because the forex is highly liquid, trading ~US$1.5 trillion each and every day. It is the most liquid financial market in the world, bar none. And, you get good fills, with fast execution times.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 45:
On May 23, we have had a rather unusual day, in that price "reached" beyond its average range to put in 135 pips in two hours, just above R2, after starting its climb at the main Pivot Point. The Euro reversed course at the double top, and broke down through R2, to mark the end of its run to achieve its average daily range, or better in this case, within 12 hours of the start of trading for the current session. You would have noticed, of course, that the double top formation was also a "railway tracks" bar formation (if you just happened to have been looking at bars, instead of candles). Those two patterns occurring at the same time are a pretty powerful indication that price has run its course. So, keep your eyes peeled for price patterns per se, but also for combinations of patterns occurring at the same time.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 46:
May 23 was supposed to be an M2/M4 day, given the up-close for the last session. But, the actual range came in at Pivot Point/R2. Trading is "shades of gray" ladies and gentleman. Pivot points are not cast in stone. But, they are usually pretty close.
That day, the combination of Pivot Point and R2 achieved better than the average daily range for the Euro, well within the confines of logic behind my pivot point definitions. The central Pivot Point becomes a buy point (read, support), when it is breached to the upside convincingly, and so it became a reasonable starting point for price to commence its "range-finding mission" for the session. Likewise, R2 is a sell point (read, resistance), and so it was a viable target for selling pressure, as the Euro exhausted its "search" for the end of its range for the session.
The main point in all of this is that the full range for the Euro was achieved within the parameters of the pivot point logic and rules, which is the most important point to get out of all of this. By that I mean that the four pivot points below the middle pivot point are all "buy" candidates, and the four pivot points above the middle pivot point (including R2) are all "sell" possibilities. Achieving the full range, or more than that as was the case May 23, is what it's all about, more so than strictly adhering to the M1/M3 or M2/M4 windows of "buying" and "selling" opportunity.
I hope you are beginning to see the power of pivot points in action. You only buy and sell in and around them – not in between, which is what we call "NO MAN'S LAND." Not the place to enter trades. The only caveat here is where price forms patterns like we saw that day above R2 with the double-top/railway tracks combination. Such a reversal phenomenon, especially with two distinct formations occurring at the same time, cannot be ignored.
But, what is significant here is the fact that this "double whammy" took place after price had penetrated R2 to the upside, which to me looked like an exhaustion area – considering the fact that the last point of resistance had been broken. Then, you look for convincing evidence that price is going to continue its trek north, or do a u-e, as it did in this case, and head south.
There are important lessons to be learned in all of the charts I post at this site. So, please study them carefully. There are parallels, as I am sure you can see, between one session’s price action and that of the previous one. In fact, given the nature of currencies trending well, every day pretty much looks the same, except for different actual ranges and different low and high points (read, iterations of the nine possible pivot point lows and highs).
Price will always determine which set of pivot points it is going to work with, and that is why you always follow price's lead. That's also why I call price the "fifth indicator," and perhaps the most important one of the five I work with. By now, you will have learned more about the other four indicators, as you studied the previous currency trading strategy tips.
Please study the charts I post at this site on a daily basis, as they offer important clues that occur each and every day! If you understand what you see in those charts, you can't help but prosper with your trading on a consistent basis.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 47:
Don’t be greedy. I heard it said recently by one of my clients that he walked away from a session with only 150 pips in his pocket, and left a lot on the table. Boy, for somebody coming from the stock world, as he did, he should been thankful for his catch of the day. The point is, if you start out as a newbie looking to carve out only 20 pips per session, then anything beyond that is gravy, and it will surely come over time.
But, don’t forget the old adage, “Nobody can argue over profits in the bank.” If you see a profit, and want to take it, then do so, and be happy. You’ll live to see another day, and take some more profits. Just don’t always grab for the brass ring. This isn't about always hitting home runs. This is about having staying power, and taking one base at a time. When you have good reason to exit a trade, make your move, and be done with it.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 48:
Former Cleveland Brown's coach, the legendary Paul Brown, taught his football players a systematical/methodical procedure of understanding tasks to attain successful results in face of unforeseen, variable difficulties.
So too with foreign exchange trading. Forex trading requires adherence to a set of currency trading strategy rules, which I have set out at this site.
A wide body of research in behavioral finance shows that traders consider the loss of $1 twice as painful as the pleasure received from a gain of $1. That's why they take more risks to avoid losses than to realize gains. They end up buying high and selling low, contrary to conventional wisdom. Follow my currency trading strategy rules, and you'll avoid getting a closely cropped haircut when the forex tanks on you, as it did May 28.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 49:
I had somebody ask me why I waited until 03:00:00am New York time to make my move, in the mean time missing potential in advance of that timeframe. The answer is quite simple. That is when London trading kicks in, and that is generally the busiest session on the forex. You will notice that is when the Euro usually starts its major trend to find its average daily range of 76 pips. Those pips are usually put in within the first 12 hours of trading. Check it out for yourself. It happens each and every day, over and over again.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 50:
"Ascending Triangle": Price forms higher lows, and looks like somewhat of a horizontal line on top and a rising lower trend line. This formation is normally bullish. You take its height at its highest point, and measure that distance from the upper line to obtain the upside target. If you want to see an example of this type of triangle, please send me a note: [email]prbain@tradingsmarts.com[/email] and reference May 26/03.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 51:
By combining "pivot point readings" with other signals – like divergence, multi-tops, trendline breakouts, triangular patterns, etc. – you can pretty much tell where price is going next. Normally, I would say that you should only enter trades in and around pivot points. But, given the large distances that can sometimes happen between pivot point areas, you then have to be on the lookout for other evidence of future price direction.
Like I keep saying, trading is "shades of gray." Nothing is always black and white in this business. Trading is as much an art as it is a science. That all said and done, when price does encounter a pivot point, you can see that that point has a powerful influence over price. So, always be on the alert for that next point of interaction with the next pivot point, as it will have a distinct bearing on what happens next.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 52:
If you are trying to catch the major trend that unfolds during the London hours, but are afraid of getting your entry point figured out correctly, wait to catch the next entry point, as the Euro "reaches" for its average daily range of 76 pips. The next entry point will occur in and around the next pivot point that price passes through. Or, you may catch price as it tries to retest the pivot point it just went through. That way, you won't run the risk of getting in too early, when the trend tries to unfold in early trading. Sometimes, price fakes you out, and goes in one direction for a while, and then reverses course, before finally picking its direction. My favorite saying is, "He/she who procrastinates wins." What you are giving up, of course, are those initial pips of the trend, which may amount to, say 30 give or take, but you are more sure of capturing the remaining 46, as the major trend of the session matures.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 53:
I would like to remind you that the pivot points above the central "Pivot Point" have a "sell" bias, and the pivot points below the central "Pivot Point" have a buy bias. These biases hold true unless price action turns a pivot point's bias from sell to buy or buy to sell – i.e., from resistance to support or support to resistance.
On June 6, 2003, you would have observed from price action that M3 held its bias, but the pivot points below the central pivot points were turned from buy, or support, points into sell, or resistance, points. Of course, price action determined this.
The other important point to make is that when the major trend reveals itself, as it did on that day (and does every day, within 12 hours of the start of trading for the session), you should think along the lines of the bias. That day's bias in early trading was "short." Meaning, you should have forgotten how to spell the word "long." Scalpers want it both ways, but that doesn't work in the forex – unless, of course, you want a short haircut. I say this because currencies trend well. Don't second-guess the trend until it reverses itself with bona fide signals. In other words, don't sell to soon, and don't buy too soon.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 54:
Keep those trading journals going! If you always trade the way you always traded, you'll always get what you always got.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 55:
There is nothing that says you have to trade often, or even every day. In other markets, most professional traders catch only three to four really great trades a week, if that! Not so with the Forex. Here, the timeframe is more like a day. However, if you don't see any "ironclad" trades, then don't trade. Turn if off and go golfing.
Slow down, and drive the speed limit. This isn't a race. After all, you are in control of the market, not the other way around. Don't feel pressured into doing something you feel uncomfortable about. Wait for those "perfect set-ups" to make your move. Same goes for those "bad-hair days." If you are feeling out of it, sit on your hands, or go do something else. Take charge of your trading life, before it takes charge of you, and your money.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 56:
I often get asked what parameters I use for MACD. I use the standard default settings. They work just fine. After all, all you should be using MACD for is divergence.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 57:
I have said it before that you should only trade in and around pivot points. The only exception to that rule is if you see a trendline breakout or a bar pattern, like price rejection, that gives a clear signal that price is about to reverse course. If price is in between pivot points, and you are not sure what to do, don't do anything! If there's nothing to do, don't do it. Patience is the hardest thing to master in the forex, or any market for that matter.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 58:
The major trend for the Euro usually starts revealing itself as the London hours kick in. Up to that point, price may "bait and switch" you into thinking it is going one way, when in fact it is setting up to go the other way. It can easily fake you out, before the London hours start to unfold. So, be patient and wait. Look for clues coming out of the previous session as to where price might be going ultimately. Did you see a "head and shoulders" pattern? Did you see a triangle pattern? Do you see price trending in any one direction over a period of time. Do you see any divergence in MACD (on the 1 hr and 15 min charts)? Do you see any channels, where price is looking to break either way? Play Sherlock Holmes. A little bit of detective work will go along way before you dive into the new session. Like the Boy Scouts say, "Be prepared!" Be in charge of your trading. Put your emotions in your hip pocket, and save them for later. Run your trading as if you were running a "bricks and mortar" business. Same principles and rules apply. No different. This is not about betting and gambling. This is serious business. After all, your hard-earned money is at stake. Protect it at all costs.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 59:
I have people asking me all the time why I don't post my trades in real time, or why they can't call me while I am involved in my own trading activities. The answer is quite simple. This page is dedicated to my belief in the old adage: "Give a man a fish, and feed him for a day - teach him how to fish, and feed him for a lifetime!"
Plus, it would be very stressful and time consuming for me to take time away from my own work (and quiet time) to interact with a discussion forum. I am sure you will understand my position on this. I have customers in over 30 countries, and it would be a nightmare for me to react to each and every nuance that came along. A chat room is in our business plan, but at this writing, I don't have any idea of when that might happen. When it does, I will certainly give you lots of advance warning.
I teach people how to fish. I don't give them the fish. I can remember when I first learned how to trade. I had my mentor sitting right by my side each and every step of the way. Then one day he upped and moved, and changed cities. He actually moved to a remote and secluded island to get away from city life. Nice move for him, but it left me in a state of panic. How could I possibly survive on my own? I can tell you, ladies and gentleman, that I really learned how to trade when I had to do it on my own, and those were real drops of sweat rolling down from my forehead all over my face.
This is about you and the market, and you mastering your innermost psyche. Anybody can learn to trade the forex my way. But, what will get you every time is that little inner voice doubting your every move. And, then there's fear and greed that will bite you real hard too. It's the psychology of your mind that you must master. You must become disciplined and patient to a fault. You must react only to bona fide signals, that I teach here. Otherwise, you would be better off heading out to your local casino, and taking your chances there.
The forex is not about gambling. It is about running a business, where there will be gains and losses. Your every effort and constant struggle should be to get a grip on those times when price goes against you. You are in charge. You can get the upper hand on price by trading "smartly," and using good money management techniques, that I also teach here. You won't win every time. But, with my system, you should come out ahead seven out of 10 times. The trick is to limit your losses to small ones, and let your profits soar.
Getting back to going solo without an instructor at your side during each and every step of the way, I recall a friend of mine telling me how he learned to fly. After several practice flights with his instructor in the cockpit with him, they landed back at the airfield, and the instructor turned to Pal and said, "Now, it's your turn to take it up. I'm getting out. You're on your own buddy." Talk about anxiety and stress. Well, Pal took off and landed all by his little 'ole lonesome. But, he was pale and his knees were knocking when he got out of the plane back at home base. He has soloed ever since. It's his passion now. There's something about being able to do it yourself, without a partner holding your hand all the time. It's called "confidence boosting." If you can fly or trade by yourself successfully, there probably isn't anything else in life you couldn't do equally as well. Actually, Navy pilots who land on aircraft carriers make the best traders. But, that's another story for another time.
I can tell you my friend learned more about flying in that one solo session than he did all the times his instructor went up with him. Same with trading. You can do it. Just believe it so. Dedicate yourself to becoming a master at it. Analyze, read, study, think. Ask questions. There is no such thing as a stupid question. Become passionate about your trading. Don't think of it as a get-rich-quick scheme. Do it because you love it. Do it as if you would do it anyway, even if you weren't making money. There has to be an element of fun in it for you. If it's all work, and no play, well you know the answer to that one.
Don't get me wrong. I am here to answer your questions whenever you need my help. I am dedicated to your success, and your happy times with your family. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to get an e-mail from you telling me how this has turned your life around, and that you are now happily making money trading the forex my way.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 60:
Don't get hung up on reading bars when you think you have caught the major trend. Once the trend is unfolding, you then look for a place to enter - around a pivot point. You look to reading bars to signal a change in the direction of the major trend.
A double top in a downtrend means nothing. A double bottom does. So, a price rejection bar or double bottom in a major downtrend would signal a short-term reversal, and that's all. But, once you see the major trend unfolding – say, on the short side – you pretend you don't know how to spell the word long. Stick with the overall major trend that is unfolding.
These comments relate specifically to the beginning hours of London trading, which is when the major trend reveals itself.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 61:
You need to get to the point where, when you look at a chart without any visual aids, you see indications as to where price is going. This has to become "second nature." At that point, you can trade with ease. And, your stress level will go down, because you will be in control of the market, not the other way around. This only comes with practice, day after day. This takes patience, and staying power. You must hang in there until you get it. Winners never quit; quitters never win.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 62:
At first, if you are fearful, don't trade until you see what you consider to be an ironclad set-up that you are familiar with – an easy one. That may mean waiting out a session or two, but that's okay. There's no rush. I find with some people they seem to have to prove something to themselves or someone else. Some people think they have to scalp all day long for some reason that is beyond me. After all, you are in control. Take your time. Relax. Enjoy it. Sooner or later, you will see a bona fide set-up that you recognize, and bingo you're in. When in doubt, do nothing. When there is no doubt, do something, do anything – pull the trigger.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 63:
Unfortunately, you will not always get all the signals you need to pull the trigger. After all, this is as much an art as it is a science. You cannot always be 100% sure that you are doing the right thing. If you wait forever to get all your ducks lined up, you may wait a long time. My favorite analogy goes something like this: Pretend you are sitting in your garage at home wanting to go to work, but you are waiting for all the street lights along the way to turn green before you pull out of the driveway. Guess what folks? You'll never get to work. Same with trading. Sometimes, you just have to make an educated guess (based on the currency trading strategy recommendations contained at this site) and go with it. You won't always be right, but this isn't about being right. It is about making a decision, sticking with it, and reversing course if you have to. Accept getting stopped out as God's way of kicking you to a higher level. Just one more step to success.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 64:
Thanks to Tom for this: There are two choices to be made – LONG or SHORT when a certain point in the session(M1, S1, R2, Pivot ... etc.) is reached. The BASIC rule is BUY (go long) below the pivot in the S1, S2, M1, M3 zone and SELL (go short) above the pivot in the Zone R1, R2, M2, M4. Obviously it isn’t as simple as this and other indicators such as MACD divergence, reading bars, trends, and patterns all add to the question LONG or SHORT. Bang on Tom! Way to go!
Currency Trading Strategy Number 65:
I have said previously that you should make your buy/sell decisions around pivot points. However, for example, if price is meandering in between pivot points and then does a double top, that would lead me to believe that price is going down. So, there are times when you would want to make your move before waiting for a pivot point to be hit. Of course, there's nothing wrong with waiting for price to do so and then reacting.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 66:
Thanks to Harry for this one: He indicated that I sometimes refer to "price rejection." And, what does that mean. It simply means that a price reversal bar has formed, causing the bar in the middle to have a higher high than the bars on either side of it. The price bar in the middle is essentially a key reversal bar. And, what you have is a "swing change." That is, price is reversing course, and heading south. The same holds true when price is reversing and heading north. You then have the bar in the middle of the three-bar pattern with a lower low than the two on either side, and the one in the middle is the key reversal bar.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 67:
Repetition is the key to success in any endeavor in life, including trading the forex. The more you practice trade, the more you trade real money, the better you get. You just have to keep at it - over and over and over again. Persistence is the key. You're bound to get better at something if you do in constantly and don't quit. Don't let the market psyche you out. When you have a down day, just treat it as experience. Lessons learned. But, try to learn from your mistakes. Keep those journals going. If it's not written, it doesn't exist.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 68:
I get the impression that some of you are not paying enough attention to trendlines. They are very powerful. Price WILL change direction when it breaks the trend, regardless of what other indicators may be telling you. So, draw them, and let them be your guide. REMINDER: In an uptrend, as we saw June 25/03, as long as the trendline holds, buy the dips. In a downtrend, sell the rallies. In an uptrend, don't look to go short EVER! In a downtrend, don't look to go long EVER! Plain and simple.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 69:
Thanks to Stu G. for this one. I have been harping on using MACD only for divergence. But, Stu is right. I do on occasion, as I did June 26th/03, use MACD to confirm the trend. If the price trend has been consistently down over a period of time, then it could very well be that when price tries to go counter-trend, it may just be a retracement or a temporary move in the opposite direction. I usually like to stick with the major trend. In a downtrend, sell the rallies; in an uptrend, buy the dips.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 70:
I was asked by some of my readership what happened Friday, June 27, with all the wide-range bars on the 15-min chart. That was a tough day to trade, even for seasoned professionals. Lots of whip-sawing. Lots of stops got taken out. Trading patterns were dominated by end-of-quarter positioning. A good day to stand clear. So, be prepared for the next end-of-quarter, and the one after that, and the one after that, etc. Mark those dates on your calendar. Trading is as much about being organized and prepared, as it is about being good at it.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 71:
Marathon runners have only one thing on their mind when they are running – to cross the finish line. They NEVER look back. Same too with trading. You should focus on surviving for the long haul. Sure, you will stumble and fall. But, just pick yourself up, just yourself off, and carry on. Winners never quit, and quitters never win.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 72:
Beware of holiday situations like the long July 4th weekend. Trading tends to be thin, and it is difficult to produce meaningful pivot points. Best to just go golfing, and forget about it. There's nothing that says you have to trade every day. Get a life.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 73:
If you are having trouble with your entry points, I suggest you try waiting until you see a hammer or a spinning top, and then pull the trigger. You may wait a long time, but at least you will be sure of getting a good entry point, as these particular candles are powerful precursors to a shift in price direction. Have a look at any chart and see how many of these candlesticks you can pick out. You might be surprised at how many there are. For more information on these bar formations, please read my August, 2003 edition of my newsletter: [url]www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletter0803.htm[/url] Obviously, if you click on that link after August 1, 2003 the newsletter will be there. Before then, it won't.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 74:
I just returned from a meeting with a group of young traders who have been at the forex for the past two and a half months. They are making steady progress, and I am extremely proud of them. I thought I would pass along their observations that may prove helpful to your own trading. They have backed off short-term trading, and are more into position trading the forex – using a longer timeframe – taking cues from the 1 hour chart. They also believe that signals that occur on that chart are more powerful than those on the 15 min. For example, a signal on the 1 hour would have more weight than an indication on the 15 min. Basically, what they are saying is that you should wait on a trade for confirmation on the 1 hour chart before pulling the trigger, unless of course you see an ironclad setup on the 15 min chart. Trading is shades of gray ladies and gentlemen. These ideas are working for them. That doesn't mean to say you can't experiment on your own. If you do and find something that works for you, please let me know, and I'll share it with the rest of the gang.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 75:
Clarification re Aug. 22/03 chart, thanks to Bill: Bill quite rightly pointed out in the chart for August 22/03 that there were hammers at 3:01 and between 5:01 and 6:01 that didn't take. My answer to him was that such a candle should be complemented by some other indication of a shift in price direction. For example, in the cases he cited above, price did not break the down trendlines - so, in effect, the hammers' supposed effect was nullified. To conclude, bar formations that should signal a change in price direction should be accompanied by other signals, including pivot points. In other words, what happens to price around a pivot point when you see a hammer? Does the pivot point support what the candle is saying? Thanks Bill for this.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 76:
I was recently asked where one could find volume figures for a currency. None of the popular sites carry it. Nor is it necessary as the Forex is a very liquid market. Volume is somewhat redundant anyway in that regard. You just need to use technical analysis to trade the Forex.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 77:
Pay attention to that news. I had been calling for an advance in the euro and Swiss franc and, sure enough, they both popped on bad unemployment news in the U.S. September 5, 2003. News is not noise in the Forex.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 78:
There are “talking” bulls and bears and there are “real” bulls and bears. The real ones are reflected in volume and open interest. But, these numbers are not available for inter-bank currency trading. However, they are reported for futures markets, which represent a good proxy for sentiment because they are primarily a vehicle for speculation.
Turning points in currency markets often coincide with extremes in open interest levels, which represent extremes in speculation. The key here is to watch for extreme levels and extreme changes in both open interest and volume to signal a possible change in trend.
Open interest numbers are of little use intraday. However, knowledge of a change in trend or extreme speculation in a particular currency based on open interest and volume can be valuable information for any trader in any time frame. That’s where an understanding of how COT works can improve your chances of detecting the underlying bias to a particular FX currency based on its futures counterpart, and anticipating its next move.
As at September 2/03, the commercial traders were extremely long with their net futures positions on the euro FX and the Swiss franc FX, versus the funds, which were extremely short. When you see such extreme divergence between these two camps, you know that price will probably follow the commercial traders’ lead.
The euro FX and Swiss franc FX represented good position trades to the long side at that time. A good buy-and-hold situation for position traders. Sure enough on September 5/03 we had bad unemployment numbers coming out of the U.S., and both currencies popped. Who could have guessed?
Currency Trading Strategy Number 79:
I think there is a misconception out there that you have to trade only the 15 min chart. You can also trade off the 1 hr and daily charts. It just lengthens the cycle. For example, when I called the euro and Swiss franc to rise, you could have taken a position on the daily chart and rode it up. That's all I'm saying. Likewise, you can wait to take a position until you see a valid entry point on the 1 hr chart. Etc.
Currency Trading Strategy Number 80:
For newbie traders, it is probably best to steer clear of Mondays, the day after a holiday weekend and end-of-quarters where there is a lot of position squaring going on.
Of course, there’s more to be learned about currency trading strategy in my original book on trading and the two e-books on trading the forex – available only at currency trading strategy You automatically get all three when you order at that link. If you are reading this page, you probably already have these books, and are reaping the benefits.
